Centre d'études sur l'intégration et la mondialisation (CEIM)

"Ce n'est pas un accord, c'est un viol"

2015-07-16T11:10:00Z

Professeur à l'université d'Austin (Texas), James Galbraith, le fils de John Kenneth Galbraith, a des mots très durs pour commenter l'accord intervenu lundi entre la Grèce et les autres membres de l'Union européenne. Ce proche de l'ancien ministre des Finances grec Yanis Varoufakis condamne à la fois le FMI, la BCE et l'Union européenne.

Quelle est votre regard sur - l'accord - entre guillemets-de lundi ?

Vous mettez vous-même ce terme entre guillemets : ce n'est en effet pas un accord. C'est un viol, le consentement grec fut obtenu de la manière habituelle dans ces circonstances : comme l'a dit justement le premier ministre grec Alexis Tsipras, il a donné son accord avec un couteau sur la gorge. En l'espèce, le couteau était la menace brutale exprimée par la banque centrale européenne de faire s'écrouler le système bancaire du pays (en refusant de prolonger ses lignes de crédit d'urgence, NDLA).

Vous pensez que ces décisions ont une petite chance de résoudre quand même le problème ?

Etant donné l'échec cuisant auquel ont abouti les politiques similaires qui ont été conduites ces cinq dernières années, il est difficile pour toute personne raisonnable de croire que la poursuite des mêmes politiques aboutirait maintenant à relancer l'économie grecque.

Certains observateurs disent que finalement, il aurait mieux valu décider d'un Grexit, d'une sortie de la Grèce de la zone euro, plutôt que d'arriver à ce texte...

Tout cela dépend de la manière dont l'exit aurait été conduit et de l'importance de l'aide que les amis de la Grèce auraient apportée au pays.

Pourquoi, à votre avis, l'Allemagne a adopté un ton si dur ?

Pour des raisons de politiques intérieures. Parce que la chancelière Angela Merkel semble avoir été prisonnière de sa propre administration et parce qu'elle ne veut pas être déforcée au profit de Wolfgang Schäuble au sein de la CDU.

Pensez-vous, comme certains économistes anglo-saxons, que tout ce qui se passe aujourd'hui est la conséquence d'une mauvaise structure originelle, d'un "bad design" de la zone euro ?

Oui, en partie...

... ils disent que dans cette zone imparfaite, il est impossible désormais de s'ajuster via les taux de change. Et que la seule manière de résoudre les déséquilibres entre les pays qui dégagent des surplus commerciaux et ceux qui sont en déficit, est que ces derniers s'ajustent via les prix et les salaires. Ce qui revient à prendre des mesures déflatoires....

Oui, c'est exactement cela !

Comment expliquez-vous la position du Fonds monétaire international : après avoir imposé de dures mesures d'austérité à la Grèce ces dernières années, il dit aujourd'hui que la solution ne viendra pas sans une restructuration profonde de la dette grecque par les Européens ?

Le FMI continue de supporter ces mesures d'austérité, qui ne fonctionnent pas. Mais il lui est interdit de participer à un programme d'aide d'un pays dont la dette n'est pas soutenable. La publication ces dernières heures d'analyses montrant que la dette grecque n'est pas soutenable est donc le moyen pour le fonds de refuser de participer à un nouveau plan de sauvetage. Cela pose d'ailleurs un problème majeur pour le financement de l'accord de lundi, car le prêt que donnerait le MES à la Grèce requiert (ce sont les statuts du MES, NDLA) la participation du FMI. Si ces conditions ne sont pas remplies, le fonds peut se retirer et dire comme Ponce Pilate : je m'en lave les mains.

Et vous, quelles solutions proposez-vous pour régler le problème grec ?

Je continue de supporter les efforts de personnes courageuses en Grèce, et notamment ceux de mon ami Yanis Varoufakis, l'ancien ministre des Finances, pour trouver une manière tolérable d'avancer...

Propos recueillis par Pierre-Henri Thomas

Greece, Europe, and the United States

2015-07-16T11:05:00Z

Pour lire l'article original, clic ici.

The full brutality of the European position on Greece emerged last weekend, when Europe's leaders rejected the Greek surrender document of June 9, and insisted instead on unconditional surrender plus reparations. The new diktat—formally accepted by Greece yesterday—requires 50 billion euros' worth of “good assets”–which incidentally do not exist—to be transferred to a privatization fund ; all financial legislation passed since SYRIZA took control of parliament in January to be rolled back ; and the “troika” (the European Commission, the European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund) to return to Athens. From now on, the Greek government must get approval from these institutions before introducing “relevant” legislation—indeed, even before opening that legislation for public comment. In short : as of now, Greece is no longer an independent state.

Comparisons have been drawn to the Treaty of Versailles, which set Europe on the path to Nazism after the end of World War I. But the 1968 Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia, which ended a small country's brave experiment in policy independence, is almost as good an analogy. In crushing Czechoslovakia, the invasion also destroyed the Soviet Union's reputation, shattering the illusions that many sympathetic observers still harbored. It thus set the stage for the final collapse of Communism, first among the parties of Western Europe and then in the USSR itself.

Six months ago one could hope that SYRIZA's electoral victory would spark a larger discussion of austerity's failure and inspire a continent-wide search for better solutions. But once it became clear that there was no support for this approach from Spain, Portugal, or Ireland ; only polite sympathy from Italy and France ; and implacable hostility from Germany and points north and east, the party's goal narrowed. SYRIZA's objective became carving out space for a policy change in Greece alone. Exit from the Euro was not an option, and the government would not bluff. SYRIZA's only tool was an appeal to reason, to world opinion, and for help from outside. With these appeals, the Greeks argued forcefully and passionately for five months.

In this way, the leaders of the Greek government placed a moral burden on Europe. Theirs was a challenge based on the vision of “sustainable growth” and “social inclusion” that has been written into every European treaty from Rome to Maastricht—a challenge aimed at the soul of the European project, if it still had a soul. No one in the Greek government entertained illusions on that point ; all realized that Greece might arrive at the end of June weakened, broke, and defenseless. But given the narrow margins for maneuver, which were restricted both by SYRIZA's platform and the Greek people's attachment to Europe, it was the only play they had.

European creditors responded with surprise, irritation, exasperation, obstinacy, and finally fury. At no time did the logic of the Greek argument—about the obvious failure, over the past five years, of austerity policies to produce the predicted levels of growth—make any dent. Europe did not care about Greece. After resigning as Greek finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis described the negotiation process :

The complete lack of any democratic scruples on behalf of the supposed defenders of Europe's democracy. The quite clear understanding on the other side that we are on the same page analytically … [And yet] to have very powerful figures look at you in the eye and say “You're right in what you're saying, but we're going to crunch you anyway.”

What Europe's “leaders” do care about is power. They posture for their own parliaments and domestic polities. There is an eastern bloc, led by Finland, which is right-wing and ultra hard line. There is a model-prisoner group—Spain, Ireland, and Portugal—which is faced with Podemos and Sinn Fein at home and cannot admit that austerity hasn't worked. There is a soft pair, France and Italy, which would like to dampen the threats from Marine Le Pen and Beppe Grillo. And there is Germany, which, it is now clear, cannot accept debt relief inside the euro zone, because such relief would allow other countries in trouble to make similar demands. Europe's largest creditor would then face a colossal write-off, and the Germans would face the stunning realization that the vast debts built up to finance their exports over the past fifteen years will never be repaid.

SYRIZA was not some Greek fluke ; it was a direct consequence of European policy failure. A coalition of ex-Communists, unionists, Greens, and college professors does not rise to power anywhere except in desperate times. That SYRIZA did rise, overshadowing the Greek Nazis in the Golden Dawn party, was, in its way, a democratic miracle. SYRIZA's destruction will now lead to a reassessment, everywhere on the continent, of the “European project.” A progressive Europe—the Europe of sustainable growth and social cohesion—would be one thing. The gridlocked, reactionary, petty, and vicious Europe that actually exists is another. It cannot and should not last for very long.

What will become of Europe ? Clearly the hopes of the pro-European, reformist left are now over. That will leave the future in the hands of the anti-European parties, including UKIP, the National Front in France, and Golden Dawn in Greece. These are ugly, racist, xenophobic groups ; Golden Dawn has proposed concentration camps for immigrants in its platform. The only counter, now, is for progressive and democratic forces to regroup behind the banner of national democratic restoration. Which means that the left in Europe will also now swing against the euro.

As that happens, should the United States continue to support the euro, aligning ourselves with failed policies and crushed democratic protests ? Or should we let it be known that we are indifferent about which countries are in or out ? Surely the latter represents the sensible choice. After all, Poland, the Czech Republic, Croatia, and Romania (not to mention Denmark and Sweden, or for that matter the United Kingdom) are still out and will likely remain so—yet no one thinks they will fail or drift to Putin because of that. So why should the euro—plainly now a fading dream—be propped up ? Why shouldn't getting out be an option ? Independent technical, financial, and moral support for democratic allies seeking exit would, in these conditions, help to stabilize an otherwise dangerous and destructive mood.

James K. Galbraith is the author of The End of Normal. He is a co-author of The Modest Proposal to Resolve the Crisis of the Eurozone and has been in Athens as a friend of Yanis Varoufakis, Greece's former finance minister. He participated in “How Germany Reconquered Europe,” a Harper's Forum about the future of the euro that appeared in the February 2014 issue. Read the full article here.

Just How Fragile Is the Global Economy ?

2015-07-15T11:28:00Z

Pour voir l'article original, clic ici.
Greece depends on Germany. Australia depends on China. Puerto Rico depends on Washington, D.C. In economics it's all about interdependence, which has many people wondering what debt crises and stock market troubles abroad mean for them. We'll get an update on the economic news from Greece and China, and discuss the interconnectedness of the world's markets.
Host : Michael Krasny
Guests :
James Galbraith, economist, professor at the University of (…)

- Publications - Centre d'études sur l'intégration et la mondialisation (CEIM) / Europe, Le monde, Entrevues radiophoniques, English, Chroniques de James K. Galbraith

Piketty's Capital in 21st Century & Best of the Week !

2014-05-07T12:56:00Z

Une entrevue sur RT avec notre chercheur associe James Galbraith sur les inégalités de revenues croissantes et leur point de vu sur le livre Capital Capital in the 21st Century by Thomas Piketty.
Pour voir la video complet, clic ici.

- Culture, mondialisation et sociétés / États-Unis, Chroniques de James K. Galbraith

Deaton & Galbraith Named 2014 Leontief Prize Winners

2013-07-01T23:33:00Z

Tufts Institute to award annual economics prize to Angus Deaton & James K. Galbraith for work on poverty, inequality, and well-being

GDAE will award its 2014 Leontief Prize for Advancing the Frontiers of Economic Thought to Angus Deaton and James K. Galbraith. This year's award, titled "Inequality and Well-Being in an Age of Instability," recognizes the contributions that these researchers have made to the studies of poverty, inequality, and well-being. They have both played a critical role in bringing grounded empirical analysis to bear on topics in need of applied interdisciplinary research.

“For too long many economists have viewed rising inequality as an inevitable consequence of economic development,” says GDAE Co-director Neva Goodwin. “But recent economic upheavals call for a new approach to understanding the causes and consequences of inequality. Angus Deaton has demonstrated that inequality is about much more than income differences, focusing on how inequality affects the health and well-being of societies. James Galbraith has shown that inequality isn't an outcome driven by factors outside of our control, but instead is often a direct result of the policy choices we make.”

The ceremony and lectures by the awardees will take place in the spring of 2014 at Tufts University; further details will be forthcoming.

See additional details:
http://tufts.us5.list-manage1.com/track/click?u=74907371d448da77287940e4d&id=2012c316f5&e=d1a540ef84

2014 Awardees

Dr. Angus Deaton is the Dwight D. Eisenhower Professor of Economics and International Affairs at Princeton University. Dr. Deaton's research areas include health, economic development, and the analysis of household behavior, especially at the microeconomic level. His current research focuses on the determinants of health in rich and poor countries, as well as on the measurement of poverty in India and around the world. His book, “The Great Escape: Health, Wealth, and the Origins of Inequality” is scheduled for publication in late 2013.

About the Leontief Prize

GDAE inaugurated its economics award in 2000 in memory of Nobel Prize- winning economist and GDAE advisory board member Wassily Leontief. The Leontief Prize recognizes economists whose work, like that of the institute and Leontief himself, combines theoretical and empirical research to promote a more comprehensive understanding of social and environmental processes.

The inaugural prizes were awarded in 2000 to John Kenneth Galbraith and Nobel Prize winner Amartya Sen. Since then, GDAE has awarded the Leontief Prize to Paul Streeten, Herman Daly, Alice Amsden, Dani Rodrik, Nancy Folbre, Robert Frank, Richard Nelson, Ha-Joon Chang, Samuel Bowles, Juliet Schor, Jomo Kwame Sundaram, Stephen DeCanio, José Antonio Ocampo, Robert Wade, Bina Agarwal, Daniel Kahneman, Nicholas Stern, Martin Weitzman, C. Peter Timmer, Michael Lipton, Albert O. Hirschman (posthumous), and Frances Stewart.

Read the full Announcement of the winners
http://tufts.us5.list-manage2.com/track/click?u=74907371d448da77287940e4d&id=d97008cf1d&e=d1a540ef84

Read more about the Leontief Prize and past winners
http://tufts.us5.list-manage.com/track/click?u=74907371d448da77287940e4d&id=febcec259f&e=d1a540ef84

Read more about the 2014 Leontief Prize Winners
http://tufts.us5.list-manage.com/track/click?u=74907371d448da77287940e4d&id=3ca63c1064&e=d1a540ef84

Live from Greece

2013-06-17T16:27:00Z

I have been in Greece for several days, where Yanis Varoufakis and I appeared on worker-occupied state television during the night of June 12. On the previous day in Thessaloniki, we spoke to a vast audience about the crisis and in support of public television and radio in Greece.
My talk is now online here : http://tinyurl.com/m5ycnxy
Also, on UTIP site, I have posted audio of earlier lectures on this trip.
http://utip.gov.utexas.edu.

- Publications - Centre d'études sur l'intégration et la mondialisation (CEIM) / Europe, Analyse économique, Entrevues télévisées, English, Vidéos, Crise économique, Chroniques de James K. Galbraith

Conference de James K. Galbraith à l'IG Metall à Berlin

2013-01-30T15:44:03Z

James Galbraith gave a keynote speech to the congress of IG Metall, the German trade union, in Berlin.
http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2012/12/12/we-all-live-under-the-dark-cloud-of-the-same-crisis-james-galbraith-at-germanys-ig-metall-trades-union-congress-7th-december-2012/

- Publications - Centre d'études sur l'intégration et la mondialisation (CEIM) / Europe, English, Entrevues dans les médias écrits, Crise économique, Séminaires et conférences, Chroniques de James K. Galbraith, Économie politique

A Question of Institutions : Why in spite of reactionary rhetoric and policies the US is surviving the Great Crisis and Europe is not

2013-01-30T15:22:18Z

James Galbraith spoke to a forum organized by the European Trade Union Institute in Brussels ; the talk was entitled, "The crisis in the United States and Europe : A grim appraisal."
Article ( what Europe needs is solidarity, not austerity ) :
http://www.etui.org/News/James-Galbraith-what-Europe-needs-is-solidarity-not-austerity
Video :
http://youtu.be/9Tv_7DgncbA

- Publications - Centre d'études sur l'intégration et la mondialisation (CEIM) / Europe, États-Unis, Entrevues télévisées, English, Entrevues dans les médias écrits, Crise économique, Chroniques de James K. Galbraith, Économie politique

The Return of Full Employment Policy

2013-01-30T14:42:12Z

Here's audio of a lecture given to a conference :
http://youtu.be/Zi-SP8LkVd8

- Publications - Centre d'études sur l'intégration et la mondialisation (CEIM) / Le monde, Entrevues télévisées, English, Chroniques de James K. Galbraith, Économie politique

GALBRAITH : Here's Why We Should LOWER The Retirement Age

2013-01-30T14:26:52Z

Next, Business Insider ran a long interview a couple of days ago :
http://tinyurl.com/cgrbgud

- Publications - Centre d'études sur l'intégration et la mondialisation (CEIM) / États-Unis, English, Entrevues dans les médias écrits, Chroniques de James K. Galbraith, Économie politique