Centre d'études sur l'intégration et la mondialisation (CEIM)

La nouvelle route de la soie, la Chine embrasse l'économie mondiale

2018-03-01T10:30:41Z

- Publications - Centre d'études sur l'intégration et la mondialisation (CEIM) / Asie, Mondialisation, Chine, Vidéos

The Rich List : The Global Corporate Race to Be Number One

2016-04-19T15:23:05Z

Abstract

This report proceeds in two sections. First, the report presents our empirical data, mapping the power shifts in the corporate global power structure in order to ask : Who is caught up with their rivals ? Who has fallen behind ? And who are closing the gap ? There are a lot of different metrics and ways to look at the rankings of the world's largest corporations. We have combined a number of these important sources which track and compile the rankings based on 5 characteristics of corporate power which include : domestic market dominance, heavy transnationalization, technological advancement, cost-cutting, and soft power status. The second section the moves to address more theoretical and analytical questions about the changing global dynamic of the world economy, especially in terms of the role of government policies, regional groupings and international trade blocs such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Moreover, it concludes by framing a number of the reports' key findings : 1) thanks to a large head start, American remains number one for now, 2) China will continue to be number two for a very long time to come, 3) oil money and corporate heavy debt loads in the resources sector are threatening global stability, 4) geopolitical regions matter more than ever. Lastly, it highlights what we call ‘The Final 2016 Score' : 1-0 US over China.

Un monde d'États, un monde de firmes : défis de régulation en ce XXIe siècle multipolaire

2015-10-23T13:11:00Z

Introduction
Certes, la crise de 2008 et ses suites ont provoqué des
réactions de repli national que l'on peut qualifier de
« protectionnistes ». Mais elles sont les symptômes
d'une intégration mondiale mal maîtrisée, plutôt que les signes
d'une tendance lourde de longue durée à la baisse des flux commerciaux
ou d'investissements. Chose certaine, les institutions
politiques sont dépassées et confrontées aux récentes transformations
économiques et financières qui remettent en cause la
stabilité et la légitimité du système capitaliste, dont la survie
dépendra davantage de l'émergence de nouvelles régulations
des processus d'intégration a grande échelle, que d'un retour
de l'interventionnisme national. Rien ne garantit une telle
émergence institutionnelle, ni la forme qu'elle pourra prendre
dans un monde globalisé, mais de plus en plus divisé et
multipolaire.

Pour lire l'article au complet, consultez le site http://www.geostrategique.com

The re-emergence of crisis theory as Europe faces new calamity : Don Pittis

2015-01-08T13:47:00Z

Alexis Tsipras, leftist leader of Greece's Syriza party, is heading for a 'decisive victory,' according to some reports, reigniting a crisis that Europe must solve. (Orestis Panagiotou/EPA)

To Canadian political economist Daniel Drache, Europe feels like it could be on the verge of a crisis. Yesterday's violent killings at the Charlie Hebdo newspaper offices in Paris did nothing to change that feeling.

"I think there's lots of turmoil ahead," said Drache, who I called to talk about something called crisis theory. "And when you move to highly ideologized mentalities, then all sorts of shit can happen."

Drache is former director of Canada's Robarts Centre and author, most recently, of Defiant Publics : The Unprecedented Reach of the Global Citizen.

'When institutions fail to adapt or change, then new policies and practices become possible in the crisis. It's a door opener and a door closer. You can't go back.'- Daniel Drache, economist

When I had arranged the interview the day before, the attack in Paris hadn't yet happened. Our subject was going to be the rise of a radical left party in Greece, Syriza, that the research group Oxford Economics says is heading for a "decisive victory" in the country's snap election now only 17 days away.

As I wrote last month, the Greek election was almost an accident after Prime Minister Antonis Samaras played chicken with the Greek parliament and lost. Now the establishment coalition, carefully patched together by way of financial support from the European Union, has fallen apart.

12 dead after gunmen storm newspaper's HQ in Paris
Political uncertainty in Greece could threaten financial bailout

There are growing signs that Syriza and its stridently leftist leader Alexis Tsipras could sweep to power in Greece, changing the entire political landscape in Europe. Suddenly the term Grexit, coined nearly three years ago as a shorthand for Greece's departure from the Eurozone, is back in the business headlines.

Turning on the rich

Tsipras has affirmed his commitment to the euro, but not at the expense of continued austerity that is causing suffering among his millions of supporters. Now in an interview splashed on the front page of Wednesday's Financial Times, Syriza says it will begin a "crackdown" on the country's elite, the wealthy oligarchs who, among other things, control Greece's media.

"The oligarchs are high on our agenda," George Stathakis, Syriza's economic spokesman, told the paper. "They will be a priority for action."

Toronto political economist Daniel Drache says as well as being trapped in the changes you have already made, each time crisis sends you careening onto a new path, other issues appear that are equally complex. (York University)

According to the Financial Times, a move against the Greek establishment will be "welcomed by international lenders." But some of the planks in the Syriza platform may not be so appealing, especially if they spread to other parts of Europe. Tsipras has pledged to renegotiate the country's bailout agreement with Europe, tossing out austerity, increasing the minimum wage, and delaying the sale of government assets. And he wants to write off Greece's debt.

If the rich countries of Europe stick to their guns, there is only one way that can lead. To Grexit. And thus the crisis.

While no one knows for sure, there are serious worries that a departure of one country from the euro currency zone (for which there are no legal provisions) could lead to something worse. With weeks to go before the Greek election, already global markets are quaking.

Interest rates on bonds in Greece and southern Europe are shooting up. Rates in North America, Germany and Switzerland are plunging as the global rich look for safer places to put their cash. Fears about the future of Europe are the other reason, in addition to plunging oil prices, that the world's stock markets have turned volatile.

Most analysts seem to think that when it comes right down to it, Europe will figure out a way to bail out Greece to avoid the risk of a destabilizing crisis. Effectively, if Tsipras wins the election and Europe concedes to his demands, a crisis created by the Greek electorate will have forced Europeans to solve what has been an intractable problem. They will transfer wealth from the rich of Europe to the poor of Greece.

The crisis solution

And according to Fernand Braudel, founder of the Annales School in France, Drache explains, that is what crisis theory is all about.

"When institutions fail to adapt or change, then new policies and practices become possible in the crisis," says Drache. But he says moments of crisis create changes that can't be undone. "It's a door opener and a door closer. You can't go back."

Rise of the radical right in Europe

_Germans condemn anti-Muslim rallies

The trouble with crisis as a tool for solving problems is that one crisis can lead to another. Thus, the worry that other European voters will demand the same concessions that Greece gets. Voters in other countries may be outraged, because as we have seen in the past, crisis is not just a tool that can be used by the left.

Right-wing populism has risen across the continent. Anti-immigration movements have emerged in Germany and other parts of Europe, including France and Italy, that will only be stoked by the shootings of Charlie Hebdo editorial staff. Political and economic systems shaped by crisis do not always end well.

"It's a wild roller-coaster ride," says Drache of a system that depends on crisis for change. "And it might go off the tracks."

Pour lire l'article orignal visitez http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/the-re-emergence-of-crisis-theory-as-europe-faces-new-calamity-don-pittis-1.2892609

Global Change and Uncertainty : The Paradox of Our Time

2014-10-22T13:30:00Z

Global Change and Uncertainty : The Paradox of our Time
A Research Report on Sovereignty and the Magnetic Power of Interdependency

Globalization's Sketchy Record of Predicting Outcomes

The globalization Grand Narrative made many bold promises about the self-regulating market and the efficiency of the price system. But despite its gold-plated attraction, liberal cosmopolitanism has not become the dominant feature of globalization with its overarching vision of transnational governance. Nor has the state has withered away as many believed was an inevitable consequence of market liberalism. These powerful claims ideas seems preposterous in retrospect, considering the engine of the BRICs economic miracle is due to the rowing and steering and investing by the leading states in the global South. Instead the rising tide of inequality across all continents is the new core element in the narrative (Rodrik, 2012 ;Piketty,2014)) (See Figure 9 : Core Concepts of Globalization : Taking Stock for a more detailed examination). The purpose of this Report is to investigate the magnetic power of interdependency and the reasons why the global order remains so volatile, unstable and unpredictable.

Tectonic Structural Change : Four Game-Changers

The principal finding of this Report is that the global landscape has been transformed by widespread structural change. Much has been state centric but much has been driven by other factors. The top four tectonic forces reshaping the global economy for this Report include : the' rise of the rest' of the global South market economies, the precarious growth of the global middle class, the disappearance of private sector unions from the workplace throughout the industrialized world, and the instrumentalization of soft power by global publics deeply skeptical of the ‘there-is-no-alternative' to the market mindset.

These are long historical processes that have intensified after the 2008 financial meltdown. With the implosion of the WTO Doha Round and the global banking crisis, the neoliberal global governance vision has faded from view as the uncontested public policy goal. Global governance of course is defined by the values, rules and practices of international cooperation and competition. A principal reason for the breakdown in the multilateral consensus is that states and multinationals are, by instinct and self-interest, rule-benders rather than stringent adherence to legal ordering as an absolute. They do not want to be constricted by stricter legal ordering, particularly at a time of crisis and uncertainty.

Constructing the Ur-Narrative Book-by-Book

Looking at the spectrum of globalization theorists from a variety of disciplines, it is possible to organize them into four epistemic families : Architects of the New World Order, Varieties of Capitalism, Global Governance and Legitimacy and the Global Skeptics (To see these different clusters of thinkers more clearly, we have created Figure 7 - Growing the Globalization Narrative Big and Strong). What leaps out is the wide scope of ideas and conceptual frameworks by these leading contributors. Though the globalization narrative has claimed universality, there are in fact many missing elements that remain sub-themes in a larger story such as the climate change, food security, and global health. Is it too far-fetched to imagine that any one of these themes could be globalization's defining element of tomorrow ?
Globalization has a history of altering course driven by its own needs and contradictions. Today what happens inside countries has become the turning point of the globalization narrative, reshaping and redirecting global dynamics towards new forms of interdependency. Governments are not standing still and see the international economy as an extension of domestic need. In a state-led system of self-interest, highly polarized societies use the international economy for short-term electoral positioning and domestic coalition building (Slaughter, 2005). National politics now intrude into every effort to move global governance forward while the benefits from one size fits all Syria of globalization have often remained contested and publics unconvinced (Hirst and Thompson, 1996).

Diverse and Conflicting Varieties of Capitalism : A Shaky Pillar of World Order

We have conceptualized global governance in the last four decades as a speedometer. Through this exercise, we are able to track how far the needle has swung away from inter-war free market capitalism to Bretton Woods multilateralism, once its immovable anchor (See Figure 1). Today the needle is in free fall, having left behind a post-war global system of embedded market liberalism with its large footprint of economic oversight and support for the welfare state (Ruggie, 1982). Since the global meltdown in 2008, the retreat from liberal internationalism has pushed the global governance needle into new territory, even away from the free market deregulatory rules of Washington Consensus.

Figure 1 : Conceptualizing the Evolution of Global Governance

On the speedometer, the governance needle fluctuates between messy- multilateralism with the vanishing core consensus, every nation for itself, global G politics and the rise of the BRICs, with their diverse and conflicting varieties of capitalism. Today, global multinationals profit from a fragmented international order and they are able to operate with fewer restraints globally. It is difficult to dislodge the needle and push it backwards to revive golden age multilateralism in some new form because powerful business coalitions have not taken up the issue to realize this goal. In light of this, global governance institutions have not become more functional as Slaughter (2005) argues, but in fact are overwhelmed by the challenge of polarized domestic politics. The sovereign needs of China, the US and the EU are so different that it is impossible to envision a system of equilibrium and balance. Now more than ever, countries look towards ad hoc regional trade agreements rather than multilateral formal treaties. In these agreements, accountability remains minimal and voluntary.
Consequently, it is a misperception to regard the torrent of changes as creating a world of quirky ambiguity and ill-defined hybridity without fixed goals. The truth is, that in a time of great change and uncertainty, states have their eye on the prize, optimizing sweeping political and economic leverage over others. The fragmentation and pluralism in the global arena presents new opportunities and spaces for innovation, dramatic change and forms of governance particularly at the national and local level. But so far these geopolitical shifts have not reduced the plight of the economic losers in this winner-take-all world (Stiglitz, 2014). In the pursuit of self-interest, volatility, acute imbalance defines the international order of our era

Pour lire tout le rapport consultez le document ci-joint.

Non Standard Employment, the Jobs Crisis and Precarity

2014-04-30T16:51:00Z

Executive Summary : The Structural Transformation of the World of Work
The Critical Features of the Non standard Labour Market Model

This report examines the causes as well as the symptoms of non standard employment. Its principal wide angled finding is that non standard employment has always been part of the labour market but now it has become a predominant feature. The two features of non standard work are little or no job security and highly flexible hours and conditions of work set by employers for their specific needs.

Defined in the broadest sense, non standard work is employment that differs from the full time, permanent, standard employment relationship (SER) involving continuous employment under direct supervision on an employer's premises (Vosko and Clarke, 2009). The decline of the manufacturing industries combined with outsourcing, decreased rates of unionization and the increase of precarious forms of employment are redefining the labour market. The growing eclipse of full time employment shows how part time, non standard work is replacing the standard employment relationship and all that went with it. In Ontario, we are now witnessing a transformation of the economy as employment in service producing industries increased from 73% to 79% between 2000 and 2013 and job tenure – the number of years a person holds her job and one of the best measures of stable employment – has dropped precipitously for mid career workers over 40 (Stone and Arthurs, 2013). At the same time short term employment has increased significantly.

A second major empirical finding is that for many experts, job tenure for mid career men is in decline in all OECD countries with the exception of France (Stone and Arthurs, 2013). In Ontario job tenure for men in mid career with more than ten years has taken a beating declining from over 50% to 35% between 1985 and 2010. The trend for men and women holding a job for 5 years or less and those under 30 has high turnover rates. This evolution of job tenure lasting five years or less seems irreversible since the growth rates of temporary and part time work are outperforming full time and permanent work. At a deeper level there is a marked structural transformation in the dynamics of the labour market as mass production industries have been hollowed out as production shifts overseas or to other regions, labour markets have been profoundly impacted. Job ladders, career opportunities, gender equity but, most of all, the secure and well paying stable jobs have disappeared undermining the existing labour relations regime. The consequences for organized labour are far reaching. Labour's countervailing power has suffered a series of setbacks from which it is yet to recover (Drache, 2014). The four main elements of the model of non standard work are the decline of real wages, inadequate statutory protection, the weakening of labour's institutional voice, and intense labour shedding technology, compounded by increasingly competitive labour markets (See Figure below).

[Read more in the PDF attached]

Does every crackpot really have an absolute right to speak on campus?

2014-03-27T11:16:00Z

This column was drawn from opening remarks presented at a March 27 Macdonald-Laurier Institute debate in Ottawa, on the resolution: “Free speech in Canadian Universities is an endangered species.”

In an era of a billion virtual soapboxes on the Internet, does the university have a special responsibility to defend free speech on controversial issues and provide space for fiery public debate? Does every crackpot, eccentric, provocateur or bona fide activist have a right to speak on campus?

The 2013 “campus freedom index” from the Calgary-based Justice Centre for Constitutional Freedom found that 23 out of 45 universities surveyed prevented groups such as anti-abortionists, pro-lifers, Israel apartheid supporters and anti-Palestinian speakers on campus from delivering their messages. Are universities running away from controversy and the free exchange of ideas? For now, this fear is overblown.

Each year, there are more than 2,000 invited speakers coming to Canadian universities, speaking on every subject conceivable from every point of view. Out of this group, 23 speakers or groups were refused an invite? Hardly a paralyzing moment, and only for libertarians is it a red flag. Why? The simple answer is that a high-priced celebrity speaker such as Ann Coulter, to use a favourite example, has a million platforms for anyone interested in her message.

In theory, free speech is the right to voice your opinion without reprisal or recrimination. Unfettered free speech is the foundation for a strong, vibrant society. Hearing all sides of every point of view is of immense value because everyone needs to be informed, and to be informed is to be responsible.

But freedom of opinion is not an absolute right — you cannot disrupt classes, you cannot prevent others from speaking, you cannot advocate hatred, racism, ethnic discrimination, deny the Holocaust. The university and faculty are subject to criminal law, Canada's hate laws in particular, and human rights legislation. So however broad the concept, there is no absolute right to free speech. The university can choose who gets a platform; who is allowed to speak and who gets invited into the conversation.

What's Next for Global Labour : Power Dynamics and Industrial Relations Systems in a Hyperglobalized World

2013-01-23T15:58:35Z

A Turbulent Time for Labour Globally

The dismantling of long established collective bargaining arrangements is without precedent and collective bargaining coverage has shrunk across the advanced industrial world to levels not seen since the fifties. Everywhere, fewer workers are bargaining collectively, an institution that once gave workers new power and status (ILO, 2010). Nowadays in France, the UK and the US, private sector union membership has fallen to record lows representing less than ten per cent of the workforce. For Canada, the equivalent number is about fifteen per cent which is trending downwards more slowly than in the US where contracting out and de-industrialization have hollowed out its collective bargaining system leaving it much weakened. In OECD countries union density levels have dropped from a high of sixty per cent of the work force in the 80s to just around thirty per cent (OECD, 2011).The shrinkage, contraction and retreat of labour at the negotiating table appears to be structural and long term with large scale consequences for governments, employees and the employers who have profited from the pro-market environment. Once thought to be off limits, the EU's prized social market has begun to lose ground and state workers' public pensions, previously declared off the table, now are threatened by the global fiscal crisis (Standing, 2012).

(More to read in PDF)

What's Next for Global Labour : Power Dynamics and Industrial Relations Systems in a Hyperglobalized World

2012-12-17T11:00:00Z

Conférencier : Daniel Drache, membre du CEIM et Full Professor of Political Science in the Faculty of Liberal Arts and Professional Studies at York University.

La conférence What's Next for Global Labour : Power Dynamics and Industrial Relations Systems in a Hyperglobalized World présentée par le CEIM se tiendra le lundi 17 décembre à 11h au A-1715, Pavillon Hubert-Aquin, UQAM.

Résumé

This conference looks at four interconnected issues that impact directly on the fragility of bottom up policy spaces for the future of work and employment : labour-shedding technologies ; new employment practices ; the geo-economic redistribution of power ; and the fragmentation of the multilateral trading system. Importantly it examines the collapse of the Anglo-American Keynesian model of industrial relations that was predicated on a bottom up policy space to protect wage and salaried workers' social and economic rights for Canada and the US. Surprisingly, despite North American market integration, the Canadian and American models are highly divergent. Thus the enormous transformations of capitalism have seen decisive shifts in state-market relations with the emergence of industrial relations systems. It concludes that more turbulent change is underway and that the Anglo-American model of industrial relations cannot be exported to China or other countries though some fascinating points of convergence are visible.

« What Comes Around Goes Around » : The Demise of the Long Forgotten ITO and The Governance Decline of the WTO Parallels, Divergences and Scenarios

2012-03-05T03:12:00Z

A-1715, pavillon Hubert-Aquin, UQAM, métro Berri-UQAM
Conférencier : Daniel Drache, membre du CEIM et Full Professor of Political Science in the Faculty of Liberal Arts and Professional Studies at York University.
Présidence : Michèle Rioux, directrice du CEIM.
Entrée libre et gratuite.

- Gouvernance globale du travail (GGT) / Organisations internationales et régionales, Droit du travail, Politique, Séminaires et conférences

Centre d'études sur l'intégration et la mondialisation (CEIM)

La nouvelle route de la soie, la Chine embrasse l'économie mondiale

The Rich List : The Global Corporate Race to Be Number One

Abstract

Un monde d'États, un monde de firmes : défis de régulation en ce XXIe siècle multipolaire

The re-emergence of crisis theory as Europe faces new calamity : Don Pittis

Global Change and Uncertainty : The Paradox of Our Time

Non Standard Employment, the Jobs Crisis and Precarity

Executive Summary : The Structural Transformation of the World of Work The Critical Features of the Non standard Labour Market Model

Does every crackpot really have an absolute right to speak on campus?

What's Next for Global Labour : Power Dynamics and Industrial Relations Systems in a Hyperglobalized World

What's Next for Global Labour : Power Dynamics and Industrial Relations Systems in a Hyperglobalized World

« What Comes Around Goes Around » : The Demise of the Long Forgotten ITO and The Governance Decline of the WTO Parallels, Divergences and Scenarios

Executive Summary : The Structural Transformation of the World of Work
The Critical Features of the Non standard Labour Market Model